Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season
September Week 1 98L.INVEST That new wave out in the Atlantic has gained a lot of convection and is now an invest. In fact, this thing already looks close to a tropical depression. Bob rulz 12:51, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :I wouldn't be surprised, looking at the models. The thing on top of the page had similar aspirations. And, it is SEPTEMBER. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 14:02, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::Look at it... isn't it beautiful? [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 14:11, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :::I'm betting 40% chance for to become Gabrielle RoswellAtup 15:07, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::::You know what? I'd up the stakes about 15%. This guy is looking pretty good. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 15:13, 1 September 2007 (UTC) SHIPS puts it at hurricane, cat 1+ [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 18:08, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :The last thing we need a Cape Verde party. Dean, Felix,... -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:35, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::Floater's been put up. And look at the GFDL model, a hurricane as well. Imagine what could happen if it goes up the East Coast, or maybe a Frances-esque track. This is an unfriendly bout of Westerners. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 19:21, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :::Convection flaring close to the center of low pressure (there should be a word for that other than "center"). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 19:25, 1 September 2007 (UTC) HWRF goes ''eerily similar to Dean. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 19:30, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :NOAA is stating a possible formation in the next 48 hours. Dean, then Felix, and Gabrielle? We shall find out in the next day or two. - Enzo Aquarius 01:39, 2 September 2007 (UTC) ::Looking awfully ominous right now. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 01:46, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :::Or maybe not, it's looking less organized. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 01:50, 2 September 2007 (UTC) ::::It looks pretty terrible right now, but it's moving into an area of less shear, and the environment is a lot moister than when 94L came through, so I still think it has a chance to develop. |'C A I N E R||''ninety-one''| 02:19, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :Because, you know, Felix already set to hit more or less the exact same area as Dean and at major hurricane strength wasn't bad enough news. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 06:10, 2 September 2007 (UTC) Any hope of this heading for the Carolina Coast? We need the rain badly. '''Other IP 06:55, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :It looks terrible right now. I don't see anything coming from this for a while. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:09, 2 September 2007 (UTC) ::Yeah, too bad. (Other IP XD). But not really, considering what's happening over there near the Yucatan. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 17:55, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::Dissipated. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 00:13, 4 September 2007 (UTC) 07L.Gabrielle AoI: Off Georgia Coast There's a low associated with a decaying frontal boundary, and could possibly develop into a topical depression. It's looks good at the moment, but we'll have to see if anything to worry about comes from this. |'C A I N E R||''ninety-one''| 17:22, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :Wow, that is impressive. I didn't even notice it (eyes automatically drawn to the major hurricane in the carib). I can see a TD out of this... at least a 99L. ''Cyclone1(18:31 UTC -2/09/2007) ::Hey, that's my house! That's MY...house! Don't be comin' into my house uninvited ;D. It's headed east though and could develop. Time will tell. -- [[User:SkyFury|'''''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|''Fury]] 21:12, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :::Holy cow! CMC puts this as a major hurricane ploghing for New England! Is this impossible? 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:18, 2 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Anything's possible in the tropics, but I wouldn't bet on it. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 01:43, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::::-points to "interesting models" section below- Gotta love the CMC. Bob rulz 04:54, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::::::Looking good, and it has NOAA's attention as well, issuing it's little '48 hour development' notice. - Enzo Aquarius 15:55, 3 September 2007 (UTC) Goddammit, this season just elevated itself to unheard of stature with double cat fives, and now this thing is rearing its ugly head (with a potential storm from 94L)! This is NOT (ok, it is) fun! [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 18:04, 3 September 2007 (UTC) 99L.INVEST There is a floater up monitoring this system on the NHC, declaring it "Invest" but not 99L. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 20:01, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :99L confirmed on NRL. Most models develop this one (CMC puts it at what looks like a new world record). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 20:26, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::Looks better that it did 24 hours ago and better than 98L. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:14, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::I say 55% Gabrielle, and 75% TD-7. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:15, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Looking very impressive! If that ridge builds, it should take whatever 99L becomes into the Mid Atlantic, or New England. Let's hope the ridge doesn't build. 'Cyclone1(21:54 UTC -3/09/2007) :::::The ridge is probably building as we speak. Anyway, if CMC is anywhere near the truth, the Yankees might be wiped out once and for all! Woohoo! But the rest of Manhattan might be wiped out... Woohoo! Seriously, there's some risky things up there. [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]] 22:25, 3 September 2007 (UTC) In a couple of days, we could see something but not before then I wouldn't think. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:18, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :Who said it was going to happen fast? ; ) [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 23:24, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::The models are in. HWRF predicts a hurricane in a few days, w/ a depression soon and slow TS development. GFDL coming in soon. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 00:23, 4 September 2007 (UTC) :::GFDL as a moderate hurricane, keeping intensity over a few days. Both predict this thing to be HUGE. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 00:26, 4 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Some interesting models coming through, though what's most interesting is the one from LGEM, which puts it through central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico with a course towards Louisiana. :S - Enzo Aquarius 02:52, 4 September 2007 (UTC) :::::Look at it now... I say 80% chance of what GFDL and HWRF say. They're never this in agreement. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 10:30, 4 September 2007 (UTC) If you look at the difference between yesterday and today, it's getting much better Organized. I say Depression at 11 PM Advisories, Tropical Storm by 4 PM Advisory on Wednesday, and Hurricane by the morning after. :Judging by the organization, if it gets Depression status, I don't think we'll have to wait long. I predict Depression status by either the 2 PM or 5 PM advisory - Enzo Aquarius 15:18, 4 September 2007 (UTC) ::I don't know about that but it could become a depression sometime tonight. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 16:33, 4 September 2007 (UTC) :::It's not yet a depression, but look at it! The low's surrounded by convection now, all we have to do now is wait for the update [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 19:06, 4 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Still saying it comes up in the 5 PM EDT update. - Enzo Aquarius 19:52, 4 September 2007 (UTC) 'SH!T! The GFDL takes it right into my vacation house as a cat 2, then up the coast as a TS! [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]] 20:00, 4 September 2007 (UTC) :Not yet guys, it's still only an INVEST. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:01, 4 September 2007 (UTC) ::THREE models take this into the mid-Atlantic/New england area as a major hurricane. CMC, GFDL, and NAM. The GFDL as a category three and the CMC and NAM as like category 6's. Cyclone1(21:02 UTC -4/09/2007) :::Dang this is taking awhile. :S - Enzo Aquarius 21:29, 4 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Where do you get intensity from obscure models like NAM? Yeah, I really am scared of CMC's, it puts it at like, 850 mb right into my vacation home. The Outer Banks will be... What Outer Banks?! [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:33, 4 September 2007 (UTC) :::::This is starting to get the attention of people now (CNN was just talking about it now. Yes, I know, I watch CNN too much, it's the only American 24/7 news channel I get. :P) - Enzo Aquarius 00:09, 5 September 2007 (UTC) :::::OMG! 40% of models develop this into a hurricane making landfall on the Carolinas/New England, half of that 40% develop this into a major hurricane, and almost all of the remaining models develop this into at least a depression. Both Weather Underground and AccuWeather are watching this system closely, by the way. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:52, 5 September 2007 (UTC) From the 2pm TWD: "AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED." Don't touch that dial! It's just like reality TV :D. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:19, 5 September 2007 (UTC) :It's looking like 96L now, the only difference is that the conditions are much more favorable (and the window is longer). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 19:01, 5 September 2007 (UTC) :: Recon has found TS force winds within it........ Anung Mwka 20:10, 5 September 2007 (UTC) ::TS Gabrielle at 5? GFDL says Cat 3 into North Carolina with a Cat 1 continuing up the coast thereafter. Will this be Ophelia v2.0, or a real disaster? 130.64.137.61 20:18, 5 September 2007 (UTC) :::The NHC is kidding themselves. This is a depression. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 20:58, 5 September 2007 (UTC) ::::I'm thinking more like STD 07; NHC will most likely discount the TS winds they found, and it still is frontal looking. That being said, I expect it to form into S/TS Gabrielle in the next 12-24 hours. |'C A I N E R||''ninety-one| 21:00, 5 September 2007 (UTC) :::::You know what's interesting? The NHC should take our (whole community) opinions, because since we have a vastly larger population of forecasters, and thus the majority is more often right. That being said, they're idiots (not really, but it's fun to say). I see no reason why they should discount the winds (they didn't in Ethel). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP]] 21:18, 5 September 2007 (UTC) No. They have PhD's, we don't. That's a big difference. I think this storm is almost there, even though NHC didn't really hint at that. Conditions are forecast to become more favorable and I don't think this thing's going away. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:32, 5 September 2007 (UTC) :Plus, given all the flak the NHC took over naming Barry earlier this year, I couldn't really blame them for being careful with debatable upgrades - and that is what 99 is right now. A good case could probably be made right now either for upgrading or not upgrading. Since 99 is extremely unlikely to make landfall in the next 24 hours, it's specific designation is not a matter of great urgency.. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 21:48, 5 September 2007 (UTC) ::Calm down, I just like shredding the NHC when they didn't do anything wrong! Is that so wrong? Seriously though, I don't know what came over me then, I think it might have been my brother ("attention deficit" is my life). Not that PhD's can predict hurricanes (imagine the NHC, during Epsilon, shaking their PhD's like magic eight balls). It just really looks better than INVEST, especially now that convection clouds are moving over the low again. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 22:08, 5 September 2007 (UTC) :::Yikes! Last time I checked, which was a few hours ago, 90% models predict at least depression, 80% for landfall, 70% for at least TS, 60% for hurricane at landfall, and 40% for major hurricane at landfall. That's not even the weird part, the storm is very favorable for developement, and it's not even tropical! 2007Astro'sHurricane 01:28, 6 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Very favorable? Conditions are awful right now. 'Cyclone1(01:56 UTC -6/09/2007) Awful? Actually, right now, yeah, they are, because the storm's being ripped to pieces! NHC is no longer considering tropical development. [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]] 10:29, 6 September 2007 (UTC) :My my, look at that. That's interesting. The frontal convection is separating from the low, and the low is developing it's own small patch of deepish convection. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 19:30, 6 September 2007 (UTC) ::Looking as good as ever this morning. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 10:41, 7 September 2007 (UTC) :::Indeed, NOAA has issued a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement this morning (Got me excited :P). A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is being sent out this afternoon, plus it appears to be organizing more. This system may finally develop into something later today. - Enzo Aquarius 15:01, 7 September 2007 (UTC) ::::We could be looking at Gabby here guys. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 16:01, 7 September 2007 (UTC) That's looking really good! Not to mention that conditions (and organization) have DEFINITELY improved. If recon gets Trop (>= depression) winds again, then that will be the end beginning? of that. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 18:57, 7 September 2007 (UTC) :Still lingering there, could turn Tropical Depression at any time. - Enzo Aquarius 23:23, 7 September 2007 (UTC) ::Slippy little bugger (see below). Should come out at either the 8 or 11 advisory. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 23:37, 7 September 2007 (UTC) :::Nothing at 8, let's see at 11. - Enzo Aquarius 00:05, 8 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Well it'd better develop soon, we need some more rain here in southern Ontario. In fact, we need about four inches more rain to replenish our soils before autumn. I just hope it doesn't become a repeat of JUAN or HORTENSE or HAZEL. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:29, 8 September 2007 (UTC) There are so many humor books about Canada I've read that I pretty much associate Ontario with "consisting of Toronto and four square miles of actual farmland". Sorry about that. Seriously, I doubt it'll get that far over, and GFDL is predicting a hurricane, so I keep my prediction for the 11 pm advisory. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 01:01, 8 September 2007 (UTC) Subtropical Storm Gabrielle And there she is! Not offical on the NHC yet, upgrade at 11. Skipping TD-7 status. Nice, third storm this year to do so. 'Cyclone1(02:19 UTC -8/09/2007) Hmm, subtrop? I didn't really expect that. ''Cyclone1(02:33 UTC -8/09/2007) :WOW i just went on to the Atlantic Hurricanne Page and saw SS Gabrielle i was not expecting to see gabrielle for a few days yet and i was thinking about going to bed !!!!! Jason Rees 02:51, 8 September 2007 (UTC) ::She's finally here, though Gabrielle will probably only reach Tropical Storm status, being so close to the shore and so far from the Tropics. Expected to hit the Carolinas and Virginia, then move upshore. - Enzo Aquarius 03:23, 8 September 2007 (UTC) :::"Expected to strengthen as she gains tropical characteristics". I still say a hurricane from this, because I also expect rapid development into a tropical storm, but there's a good chance it won't happen. She's also looking rather pretty (for an SS) today. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 11:16, 8 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Heh, sorry to say, but judging by the distance from shore (one day to landfall), I can't see much development. I give it 95% Tropical Storm, 5% Cat. 1 Hurricane. - Enzo Aquarius 16:00, 8 September 2007 (UTC) I don't think it'll make too much stir at "landfall", just barely scraping by the Outer Banks, so I up hurricane by about 20%. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 16:09, 8 September 2007 (UTC) Over last 4 hours, she has organized quite a bit. If this organization trend continues, and stays off coast, Nova Scotia may be in for a cat 1-2 landfall. :Don't think so. Shear's supposed to increase in a couple of days. We might see a tropical landfall in North Carolina though. I think they'll welcome the rain. -- [[User:SkyFury|'''''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|''Fury]] 17:33, 8 September 2007 (UTC) ::If we see a hurricane, it will be a 75-80 mph cat 1 for one or two advisories after NC, nothing big. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 19:21, 8 September 2007 (UTC) Tropical Storm Gabrielle Just upgraded to Tropical.. apparently, she has acquired enough tropical characteristics. What model was it that forecasted STS, then TS, and then a hurricane landfall from New England to Nova Scotia? :The one that was wrong. Hurricane chance listed as zero. I think so to; the way I see it, an exposed low TS is not going to make hurricane. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:12, 8 September 2007 (UTC) ::Looking better. Convection getting closer to the center. 'Cyclone1(22:53 UTC -8/09/2007) :::Low no longer exposed. Hmph. Still say it ain't makin' fifty five knots (I'm wrong, aren't I?). [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]] 23:10, 8 September 2007 (UTC) ::::I don't think you are. I think 45-50's more accurate. Gabby could bring some much needed rain to North Carolina. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:21, 8 September 2007 (UTC) True. When I went to NC a couple weeks ago, there was ONE thunderstorm (usually more like 3 or 4) and it was REALLY dry, with standing water disappearing MUCH quicker than usual. I'm not sure if the Outer Banks are too indicative of the rest of NC, but that's evidence. Before we got 2 inches of rain up here from the Midwest Flooding of 2007 (as Wikipedia so quaintly calls it), Dulles airport had dust flying all over the place. Agh, please, I'll try not to tell you about the trip, even though it was probably... No, I must keep myself sane. Those 777s though, they're really something, eh? [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 23:34, 8 September 2007 (UTC) :Although not under the best of circumstances, atleast the southeastern states will get rain for a day. Now, in Ontario and the northeastern/central states there is line of storms http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif. If Gabrielle follows on her course, except north towards Nova Scotia, she may interact with this system line. - Enzo Aquarius 00:33, 9 September 2007 (UTC) ::NHC is saying Gabrielle will recurve around the Atlantic ridge. It didn't say anything about the frontal system. They did say that Gabrielle looks like it's getting better organized. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:22, 9 September 2007 (UTC) :::Wow, that is by far the weirdest looking tropical storm ever, It's basically a mesoscale vortex. Just one extremely small ball of convection. 'Cyclone1(04:53 UTC -9/09/2007) ::::I was about to say, looks a lot like an ordinary MCS. Looks like my place in Ocracoke won't get the brunt of the storm, just a lot of rain. Hurricane chances are gone again. I say POSSIBLY reaches 50 kts before being extratrop. Phew, though. [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]] 15:58, 9 September 2007 (UTC) :::::Landfall near Cape Lookout National Seashore of North Carolina. - Enzo Aquarius 16:42, 9 September 2007 (UTC) Basically crossed right at the cape but the rough stuff will be a little longer comin'. Doesn't look like the rain will get very far but some is better than none. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:17, 9 September 2007 (UTC) :Yep, landfall was at 1145 EDT, official as of a recent NHC update. This might be a good thing more than a bad thing. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 17:19, 9 September 2007 (UTC) ::That was freakin' cool! The low just ripped right out under the convection and made second landfall on NC, and now it's just like there's a low attached to some sort of large thunderstorm complex! [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 21:03, 9 September 2007 (UTC) 91L.INVEST AoI: Off the coast of Africa There's probably some reason why no-one's put this up yet, but I can't stand it. There's a low off the coast, and a convective, multiple-area tropical wave. The models say "yes", NHC says "what", and I'm going with my eyes and the models. Opinions? [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 23:13, 7 September 2007 (UTC) :Our eyes have been on this darn 99L.Invest system. :P But yes, this system does look interesting. Let's give it a couple of days or so and see what happens. - Enzo Aquarius 23:27, 7 September 2007 (UTC) ::Yeah, 99L is a slippy little bugger. I'm putting INVEST development Sunday morning, though that might be a little early. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 23:36, 7 September 2007 (UTC) :::With Gabrielle out, again everyone forgets our little AoI friend, who is about three times more likely to become a hurricane. Although Gabby does have some really nice looking TROPICAL features... Anyway, this guy is getting more convection from another thunderstorm (MCS perhaps? Probably not) moving off the coast. It looks much worse today, but still, I think this guy has potential. It's nothing like Dean-wave, or Felix-wave, but it does have potential. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 11:21, 8 September 2007 (UTC) ::::EVERYBODY PAY ATTENTION! LOOK AT WHAT'S OFF THE COAST! For whatever the reason, it seems that the thunderstorm off the coast has developed an associated low, and it already looks like a depression. It's kinda far north, and I'm not so sure it's associated with this one. However, this one looks pretty awesome as well. Both of them are supposed to curve north pretty soon after development. Opinions? [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 14:13, 8 September 2007 (UTC) First system is up on the TWO, and it doesn't seem there's anything stopping it. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 14:18, 8 September 2007 (UTC) :What's wrong with the NRL? there are now two areas potential for development and they didn't upgrade either even just a mere invest??? RoswellAtup 15:27, 8 September 2007 (UTC) ::They probably won't catch up for a couple of days, because the systems are still developing, but that one due east of the Cape Verde's looks extraordinarily ominous to me... [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 15:39, 8 September 2007 (UTC) :::For once ;), I'm inclined to agree will IP for the time being. While the thing in the middle of the ocean may eventually develop, that thing off Dakar is quite impressive. There is noted cyclonic turning. It's small and just because it looks tropical doesn't mean it has an LLCC, but it looks healthy. Stuff very near Africa is prone to falling apart suddenly so I urge caution there. The wave in the TWO could also very well develop, considering the kind of luck similar waves have had this season. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:43, 8 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Weaker now, and kind of weird-looking, but almost merging with the other system, which is also looking ominous. It's not like a few hours ago, but it is definitely a threat. If they merge, it can't be good. And I know I tend to over-exaggerate, but the one time I didn't, it was an under-estimate (Felix: I predict Cat 3 max, Cat 2 min, Cat 2 more likely, though none of us predicted cat 5). Usually what I say is more enthusiastic than what I think, so take about 10-40% off of most of my predictions, and you should have a somewhat more reasonable answer. Anyway, did anyone else note that there was some turning in that thing around 7N, and that if it forms, it will break Ivan's record (not that it will)? This is almost as good looking as Dean's wave (ah... a pulse of almost-nostalgia running through me... the crowded third world streets buzzing with a sense of excitement, the luxury hotel emanating with style and comfort, the tropical beach, swaying with the wind, and somewhere, off in the distance, something wicked is stirring... Zanzibar, August 24th, 2007... What a wonderful trip that was, especially after the safari. Sorry for that, it was just that it was one of my top ten, the other nine having already happened on the same trip). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 19:19, 8 September 2007 (UTC) :::::(Jesus, pass the bong would ya ;D. LOL.) So if you predict a 40 percent chance of ''X then I shouldn't hold my breath? -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:49, 8 September 2007 (UTC) If I predict forty percent chance of ''X then X'' is going to hell in a hand basket ; ). But really, if it's under 50% you can most likely say it's PROBABLY not going to happen. If I say zero percent chance, however, then it will become a category four hurricane. I'd say that there's a pretty large error margin, since I'm newish, but I have been right a few times (Chantal, Dean, Gabby from this this morning to now, Barry, all the E-Pacs) and wrong a few times (everything else this year besides a few W-Pac systems), and a lot of the times I have no idea what I'm saying (those times that I was wrong). Back on topic, I'll put up percents now: 60% tropical eventually (don't take too much more than 10 away from that), 5% dissipation in a few hours, the rest dissipation slowly. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:20, 8 September 2007 (UTC) :Please take more than 10% off now. I saw the Atlantic wide view picture. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:29, 8 September 2007 (UTC) 91L.INVEST Number's not up yet, but it's officially recognized by NHC with it's own little floater. BTW, this is the low feature that came off of Dakar yesterday, which I think got more energy from the other wave. Looks like advisory one Gabby. Opinions? [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 13:16, 9 September 2007 (UTC) :Sorry, looking at the wrong storm. This is the OTHER wave, the one off of Dakar is still looking great (Look at the storm below it on 10N, that's brilliant!). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 13:19, 9 September 2007 (UTC) ::Yep, this is the one west southwest of the CV islands. 'Cyclone1(14:15 UTC -9/09/2007) :It has been a pretty poor show for the Cape Verde activity this year and last year... The Cape Verde invests are lame, and probably this one would go poof anytime... RoswellAtup 14:02, 9 September 2007 (UTC) ::Pretty poor? The only two serious waves we've had turned into monsters! It's not poor, it's just SLOW [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]] 15:56, 9 September 2007 (UTC) :::Judging by what has happened this year, I have to agree with IP. From its location, it could turn into anything or do anything. Not noticed by the NHC yet though. - Enzo Aquarius 16:31, 9 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Neither is 92L, but this one does have a floater labeled "Invest", I believe it's floater 2. I say nothing today, possibly something tomorrow. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 17:25, 9 September 2007 (UTC) Um, not sure exactly what Roswell's smoking but it's not healthy whatever it is. It's not exactly been 1995 a'la the Parade of Storms but the two waves that did spin out had a combined ACE of 50.3 and killed 175 people. And that's just the numbers, not counting how many records they set. This wave is not impressing me a whole lot but it bears watching seeing what's already happened. (This invest is up on NHC floaters, by the way, though not numbered. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg)-- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:29, 9 September 2007 (UTC) I just said that's where it was (even though you gave a link)! I'd have to go with Eric on almost all points (ok, all of them) on this one, as I said before, it's just SLOW. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 17:32, 9 September 2007 (UTC) :Now numbered. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 18:31, 9 September 2007 (UTC) ::Perhaps I should add that I have yet to be impressed by this system in any way. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:31, 9 September 2007 (UTC) :::You said that already. Organization should develop in a couple hundred miles, I would think it will form significantly to the west of the area Felix and Dean did. I'm going with SHIPS and the NHC, slow development over the next few days. Might become a Gulf storm [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 21:40, 9 September 2007 (UTC) ::::And why do you all say you "have" to agree with me? Is siding with me some kind of self-induced mental torture? [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 21:42, 9 September 2007 (UTC) Looks great! [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 00:47, 10 September 2007 (UTC) :Judging by the looks of this, it could form into something. It still has quite a ways to go, thus I personally see this one forming into something. - Enzo Aquarius 02:34, 10 September 2007 (UTC) Week 2 AoI:Central Northern north Atlantic Has anyone noticed that huge extratropical low in the north atlantic between Newfoundland and Portugal? It's effectively splitting the Bermuda High in two! Some models predict it to dissipate, others merge it with Gabrielle, and a few even bring it to near-hurricane strength and send it ploughing for the British Isles! It looks like a spiraling frontal system that just came off the coast of Canada, and in its centre is what looks like an extratropical eye. Either way, this could be a storm to watch for Europe. Any thoughts? 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:30, 8 September 2007 (UTC) :An interesting Extra-trop, to be sure, but there isn't too much convection near the center, and I really doubt tropical development. But yes, this does look like a potential threat to Europe. I've been tracking this for several days, and only now does it look like anything. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 16:41, 8 September 2007 (UTC) ::And in my unprofessional opinion it will stay an extratropical storm. Impressive nonetheless. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:35, 8 September 2007 (UTC) :::That's exactly what I said! And you say you never agree with me ; ) [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 19:21, 8 September 2007 (UTC) ::::There's also this darn storm line going through the States and Canada right now that'll eventually enter the Atlantic. May see some interesting interaction with this low, the storm system and Gabrielle. - Enzo Aquarius 00:36, 9 September 2007 (UTC) 90L.INVEST Randomly, the area in the Gulf has been designated 90L. I don't really know why; Shear is 10-25 knots and increasing, so it really doesn't have much chance of developing. Oh well, if it wants to be 90L, we'll let it be 90L. |'C A I N E R||''ninety-one''| 03:35, 9 September 2007 (UTC) :What? The Atlantic wave has far and away a better chance of developing than the patch of rainy weather in the Gulf/Caribbean. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:24, 9 September 2007 (UTC) :I'm really wondering why the NRL is hesitant in upgrading the wave in Atlantic into and invest? it has a very good Chance...RoswellAtup05:15, 9 September 2007 (UTC) ::They aren't, it's an NRL invest now (along with 91L, see above). And I'd take another look at this one. I'm probably with you on the call, but it's looking pretty nice... [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]] 13:13, 9 September 2007 (UTC) Convection is increasing. Kinda looks like the precursor to Gabrielle (2001, that is) Cyclone1(14:17 UTC -9/09/2007) :I give it a 10% chance. Doesn't look so great. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 15:54, 9 September 2007 (UTC) ::Looks really really bad now. Never should have been declared. Probably an operational accident, but they still have to go with it. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 16:05, 9 September 2007 (UTC) :::Indeed, looks absolutely horrid. Extremely doubtful it'll even made Tropical Depression status. - Enzo Aquarius 16:29, 9 September 2007 (UTC) ::::The TWO says it's not under consideration (that was BEFORE 90L was called, mind you). I say this one's remains get scattered across the Caribbean by the end of today. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 17:05, 9 September 2007 (UTC) Looking much better now, but not as healthy as SHIPS seems to think (SHIPS, by the way, is on crack; read under '92L'). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 20:49, 9 September 2007 (UTC) :I agree on all fronts. A defined area of shitty weather has begun to hold a pow-wow near Cuba and is shedding some of the excess gak. It's starting to look more like something to watch. (And I do agree, SHIPS is completely wasted.) -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:35, 9 September 2007 (UTC) ::"A defined area of shitty weather..." You sound like a disgruntled TV weatherman XD. That excess crap close to Cuba is looking pretty nice. I'd say the only way SHIPS can justify this is by making it loop down towards the Yucatan and follow the coastline all the way to Florida, almost like one of those marathon runners that hi-fives all those finish line people. SHIPS can provide the cheesy victory music. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 21:46, 9 September 2007 (UTC) :::Yeah, that's my immitation of the hardass weatherman ;D. The wheels are spinning for this thing, but if the shear in the Gulf doesn't let up, those wheels'll be spinning air. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:51, 9 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Moist, hopeless air, wandering the Gulf, waiting for the next storm to come so they can hop up on the train and head inland before their chance passes them by, yet, oblivious to all that is happening around it, only following what others feel is right, yet none of them exactly knowing what that might be. Sound familiar? There are so many potential metaphors in that sentence that it is almost as if I am comparing said air to modern society. But wait... Might that be my intention? ::::Sorry, I feel giddyish today, and I just HAD to do that. You're right, though. You're ALWAYS right (not really). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 00:14, 10 September 2007 (UTC) Dissipating. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 10:37, 10 September 2007 (UTC) 92L.INVEST I think you can guess which feature this is. Yep, it's the low a couple hundred miles away from the Lesser Antilles. It's not official on NHC, but it's been declared on NRL. Did anyone expect 92L from this guy? [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 16:02, 9 September 2007 (UTC) :I can't believe it, but if my eyes aren't wrong i'm seeing a new INVEST. May be not like 2005, but this season could turn crazy. Hurricane at 870 mb 16:05, 9 September 2007 (UTC) ::It's already been crazy with two Cat. 5 landfalls in a row. ;) For this system, it's hard to say. I like the look of it, seems somewhat organized, but it hasn't caught the eye of NHC yet. Without looking at the models ahead of time, I would say that, if this formed into something (Tropical Depression/Storm Humberto), it would either go through Cuba/Dominican Republic or Florida (the later of which is supported by the models). - Enzo Aquarius 16:27, 9 September 2007 (UTC) :::I've been looking at this thing with suspicious eyes for quite a while, and never has it looked like this before. And this season is really looking strange so far, with so few hurricanes. However, if it gets enough throughout the fall, then it could be quite a bit above average. Another burst of INVESTs, however, are exactly what this year doesn't needs to become above average good. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 17:04, 9 September 2007 (UTC) ::::This one is actually impressing me more than the one off Cape Verde. It looks more organized that 91L. And the models race it toward Florida. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:35, 9 September 2007 (UTC) It does look pretty good, and 91L IS kinda disorganized as well. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 18:02, 9 September 2007 (UTC) :Floater up and numbered. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 18:31, 9 September 2007 (UTC) Ughh. Not happy. Tried to log into my Wikia account SargeAbernathy, tried to get my password, and they sent me a new password to an email I no longer have. So that means I've got to start all over with Sarge_Abernathy. Live and learn. ANYHOO. I was surprised when i woke up and saw Tropical Storm Gabrielle had just come ashore, and underneath her name at the wunderground site were three invests that weren't there before. Including an invest in the Gulf! I agree with the few out there that 92L here is much more interesting to watch. If it does develop, perhaps it will drag ... uhh which one is behind it, 90? ... perhaps it'll drag the one behind it along. Sarge Abernathy 18:46, 9 September 2007 (UTC) Out of curiosity, are all four floaters now in operation at the same time? Sarge Abernathy 18:46, 9 September 2007 (UTC) Yup. Second time this year. Good to see ya, I guess. Although I'm pretty sure 91L and 92L are too far apart, the consensus here seems to be in favor of 92L's development. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 19:38, 9 September 2007 (UTC) :Holy crud! SHIPS turns all three invests into hurricanes! And get this, it makes 90L the strongest! This one gets to 71 knots on SHIPS without slowing down, 90L 90 kts, and 91L (god, god, GOD no) becomes Dean and Felix's little brother. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 20:48, 9 September 2007 (UTC) ::Doubt it. I don't even think all three will develop. 92L hasn't gotten any better organized all day but the circulation is well defined and conditions are relatively friendly. Patience is a virtue. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:39, 9 September 2007 (UTC) :::It doesn't have enough convection to develop very soon. BTW, if you notice hard, that little surface low is dissipating while another one to the north of it is forming (which might be what's shredding this system, but I don't know). This is a pretty sad little wave. It's like those people you know who always bitch about everything even though their parents just gave up their pensions to by them a Ferrari. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 21:49, 9 September 2007 (UTC) :What does SHIPS mean? Anyway, maybe it could be right because by looking at the satellite imagery, all three systems appear very organized. The only thing I can be 75% sure it's that we have TD 8 (65 % for Humberto) in our hands (from three invests is very probable that at least one develops into a tropical cyclone). I hope that the next system is a fishie, since this year we have only had fatal hurricane. As Enzo Aquarius said, this season is ALREADY crazy and in my two cents opinion, I think the Atlantic doesn't need another cat5 (neither a cat3). Hurricane at 870 mb 21:55, 9 September 2007 (UTC) ::Lows have merged. Convection should refire overnight. If it does, it has a chance. If it's not significant, this thing is D-E-A-D ''dead. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 22:00, 9 September 2007 (UTC) :::SHIPS is an intensity model, acronym means Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 22:02, 9 September 2007 (UTC) ::::No more convection. This thing will die, and it will be rubbed into the dirt water. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 23:29, 9 September 2007 (UTC) Dissipateding. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 00:47, 10 September 2007 (UTC) :Yep, looks like we may have a dud here. The system, though with visible rotation, just looks like it's going. - Enzo Aquarius 02:37, 10 September 2007 (UTC) INVEST reports Is there someplace where there is some text on the INVEST reports? The NRL site doesn't seem to carry text, until it reaches at least tropical depression status. 4.154.5.226 06:01, 3 July 2007 (UTC) :Not as far as I know. Bob rulz 17:26, 16 August 2007 (UTC) Interesting models I don't know if this is important, but I found a very interesting Fujiwhara interaction on an eight day old CMC forecast. Link 68-100-190-56 16:25, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :Edit - If anyone finds any really interesting models, it could be interesting to group them here. Here's one of four cyclones forming (again from CMC): Link 68-100-190-56 16:29, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::Gotta love the CMC. Bob rulz 17:19, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :::The most recent one turns Dean into a cat 5. 68-100-190-56 18:05, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::::I wouldn't rule that out. Bob rulz 18:29, 16 August 2007 (UTC) I would trust the CMC on that count at this point. 68-100-190-56 21:05, 16 August 2007 (UTC) Hmm... Sorry for the extra header, but we have plenty of them don't we? Anyway, there seems to be a (somewhat) consensus on the models that go out that far that in a few days, after this wave of Africa, we will have something tropical in nature. Check out the GFS and you'll see what I mean. Any ideas? IP 23:38, 29 August 2007 (UTC) Model predictions I remember last year seeing links to plots of model projections (on Wikipedia of course) for all invests. I can not seem to find the link, does anyone know what I'm talking about? -Runningonbrains 17:34, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Hmm... No, I don't remember that. What kind of format were they in? IP 18:16, 30 August 2007 (UTC) Model runs and Model plots. -- RattleMan 22:11, 31 August 2007 (UTC) Model sites Could some of you provide the model sites you use? It would be very helpful to quite a lot of us. Thanks, IP 23:34, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Here is a graphic model page that shows all the models at once. http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_96.gif Just change the 96 in the URL to whatever the current invest is to see the model plots. Cyclone1(00:56 UTC -31/08/2007) ::Thanks. I've been there before, but frankly, I had no idea what it was ^-^' IP 01:16, 31 August 2007 (UTC) 2 Cat5 no other hurricanes Fourth time we have had two Cat 5 hurricanes in a season. This is the first of these where we haven't had an earlier hurricane of another category. This seems pretty weird. If you start looking for things like this, you probably find them nevertheless it still seems weird. crandles 81.86.39.6 12:02, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :1958 1977 1980 1992 had a category 5 as first hurricane of season so probably not all that weird. crandles 81.86.39.6 12:19, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::What probability would you put on it? If first hurricane of season being cat5 is a 1 in ten chance (5 times in 57 years from 1950 when records become reasonable) and there is also a 1 in 10 chance of a second cat 5 in a season (4th time since 1950) then perhaps a 1 in 4 chance (happened in 1960 not in other 2 years / 4 occasions) of no hurricanes between two cat 5 hurricanes. Is 1 in 400 years a reasonable assessment of how unusual? crandles 81.86.39.6 12:51, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::If there's a 1/10 chance of the first hurricane being a cat5 and a 1/10 chance of the second hurricane being a cat5 that means there's a 1/100 chance of the first two hurricanes being cat5. Pretty simple eh. But that's not a large enough sample set to make any kind of judgement on. Surely climatology and the favorable environment in the caribbean while there's an unfavorable environment elsewhere is more to blame. 66.243.195.90 16:59, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Both of you are somewhat incorrect, there has never been a statistical observation of two category fives forming one after another with only one storm in between (in the Atlantic basin) (Ethel was NOT a cat 5, and it shouldn't be considered one), thus raw statistics cannot be used to predict the probability of the event. That's pretty scary though. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 17:53, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::::Discounting Ethel in 1960, this is the first time the first two hurricanes of the season were Category 5's. Another excuse for me to talk about just how amazing the West Pacific is: In 1997, that basin had three consecutive storms with winds of at least 180 mph! Man, I love that place! -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:20, 3 September 2007 (UTC) Then why don't you go live there? ; ) [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:27, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :I may well be wrong about Ethel but if so, should List_of_notable_Atlantic_hurricanes#Category_5_hurricanes and Hurricane_Ethel_%281960%29 be edited? :I don't expect my estimate of the odds to be perfect - odds depend on your subjective Bayesian priors. Yes the past isn't necessarily a guide to the future and all that. However it should be possible to make a subjective estimate of the odds and what else are you going to base it on? If there's a 1/10 chance of the first hurricane being a cat5 and a 1/10 chance of the second hurricane being a cat5 that means there's a 1/100 chance of the first two hurricanes being cat5. Pretty simple eh. :Possibly but also possibly wrong. If they are independent yes but there is the possibility that there is an relationship that makes this untrue. What does the data indicate? 24 Cat 5s in 57 years occuring independently would mean an expectation of ~6 years from 1950 with two cat 5 but we have only had 3. Maybe this is just chance or maybe there is a relationship that makes them unlikely to occur in same year/close to one another. A more important question might be whether the answer is changing with time due to global warming. My estimate could be a long way out. :Re "raw statistics cannot be used to predict the probability of the event" they cannot be used to calculate the odds with confidence but if you accept there is going to be huge error margins and still want to try then the raw data may still help - what else you are going to use? - a weather/climate model perhaps but you are still going to need to use the data to see if your model is plausible. crandles 88.105.72.76 22:53, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::In a chaotic system like weather, there is no way to predict long term trends on a mesoscale level. Weather forecasts beyond 15 days tend to be unreliable and at 30 days they have no meaning whatsoever. The facts are that there is no way. Plus, this entire chain of reasoning is flawed because there are fluctuations of factors on many levels, from 10 years to hundreds of years. And Ethel was officially a category five, but the results are so dubious that I consider it impossible. But why argue? The facts are that the chances of this are pretty darned small, because it's never happened before. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 23:33, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::Well I think I agree the chain of reasoning here is flawed and we are certainly never going to reach a decision on what the odds are. 'Pretty darn small' is as close as we might get. This crazy odds stuff was intended as a bit of fun. If however we were talking about total hurrince numbers then I would say you are protesting too much - weather forcasting beyond 15/30 days is impossible but that does not mean that climate forecasting is impossible. That would be like saying because I cannot predict the value of the next roll od a fair dice then I cannot predict the total of 1000 dice rolls will be close to 3500. "many levels, from 10 years to hundreds of years" - I can only assume you are implying AMO. The evidence for this is weak compared the evidence for the effect of global warming. AMO possibly does better at explaining hurricane numbers than global warming but if there is better evidence for global warming then it becomes more likely that it is a combination of global warming plus some other effects - perhaps things like deforrestation of Africa causing more dust storms. It is not easy to do attribution but it isn't impossible either. crandles 81.86.39.6 11:32, 4 September 2007 (UTC) Two cat5s at landfall without other category hurricanes wow the odds of that are somewhat lower. crandles 81.86.39.6 12:40, 4 September 2007 (UTC) :(Create an account, Randles, we'd love to have you.)2007 is now also the first year to see a hurricane make landfall from both oceans on the same day during the past half century. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:36, 5 September 2007 (UTC) ::June 2, Barry and Barbara. (TS) September 5. Felix and Henriette. (H) Both sets hit North America on the same day as each other. 'Cyclone1(22:24 UTC -5/09/2007) :::I thought he was referring to the fourth! (Henriette made landfall on Baja). That's really something though. Suppose this is a real record breaker in twos. [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]] 22:32, 5 September 2007 (UTC) ::::According to NHC, the center of Barry didn't officially make landfall until it was a tropical depression. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 14:21, 6 September 2007 (UTC) "Discounting Ethel in 1960, this is the first time the first two hurricanes of the season were Category 5's." Even if we DID count Ethel as a Category 5, regardless of accuracy, Abby and Cleo were the first two hurricanes of 1960 and not Donna and Ethel, so 1960 didn't have the first two hurricanes as Category 5s, just the first season where two consecutive named storms were Category 5s. Jake52 My talk 18:06, 8 September 2007 (UTC) :A well put point. How many records (or other notable circumstances) do we have so far? Add to the list and sign if you can - *As stated by Cyclone1, the first time that on two different occasions two storms in both hurricane basins made landfall on the same day *The first time that two cat 5 landfalls have occurred in one season *Only the fourth (third) time two cat fives have formed in one season *Discounting Ethel, the first time cat five storms have been separated by less than four storms (four storm difference occurring between Wilma and Rita) *The first time that the first two hurricanes of a season were cat fives *The quickest TD-cat 5 intensification on record in ''any basin (Felix) *The third fastest 24-hour intensification in any basin (also Felix) *The ninth most intense Atlantic hurricane ever (Dean) *I believe only the second time that two cat 5s have followed in extraordinarily close tracks (2005 having Katrina and Rita) :Any more? [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 19:32, 8 September 2007 (UTC) ::I don't think that this was the first year we've seen two storms of any strength make landfall from both basins on the same day, but I do believe it was the first time both storms were hurricanes. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:28, 8 September 2007 (UTC) :::Sorry, meant to fix that, it's the only time when one of the events involved two hurricanes. I still think that Barry could well have been a tropical storm (40 mph) at landfall though. Even so, with or without the hurricane note, there is the fact that if it's happened before, it probably only happened once or twice :P. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 23:52, 8 September 2007 (UTC) ::::It's rare, I'll give you that. That I don't think is disputable. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury'']] 04:45, 9 September 2007 (UTC)